How is the trend of the steel market?

As the new year beginning the steel market is relatively weak

Since the new year's day, the national steel market has been rising and falling, but the overall view of t-he weak shock, the total price level (average price) has not seen a deep fall. If there are no major acci-dents, is expectedthis year, before the spring steel prices, especially for construction steel prices are r-elatively weak, compared with the previous highs, but does not appear sharply. Before the spring steel market so weak:

First, the high profits to stimulate the iron and steel enterprises to increase production. At present, the profit ofsteel enterprises per ton of steel is generally hundreds of yuan, the highest one even reaches 1000 yuan. Now, the higher profit per ton of iron and steel enterprises will stimulate efforts to increase. According to China SteelAssociation statistics, the average daily output of coarse steel in the first ten -days of January 2018 was 1 million789 thousand and 600 tons, and the average daily output increasedby 7 thousand and 900 tons, an increase of 0.44%. The national estimated value was 2 million 241 tho-usand and 900 tons, and the increase of 15 thousand and 300 tons in the daily period increased by 0.69%, indicating this trend. It is for the future of steel production capacity over the expected release of -concern, become the largest steel market before the spring restraining factors.

The two is that the demand is in the traditional off-season. The spring before the northern winter out-door construction stalled, and new year's day and Spring Festival holiday in the off-season demand o-f enterprises.

Three, the psychological price of the market terminal consumers and the middle traders. Now the steel market participants generally believe that there is no significant lifting condition for the steel market. T-he weak operation will become the keynote of the market at this stage, so there is no hurry to replenishthe stock. On the other hand, the factory price of iron and steel enterprises is generally high at present, and the price of some kinds of steel products is even higher than the local market selling price after t-he delivery price plus freight. Due to its impact, the steel "winter storage" has not yet been launched o-na large scale, still waiting for a sharp fall in the market price. Before the steel "winter storage" large-scale start, the market demand is lack of vibration, steel market can only run weak.

The four is the steel futures prices long the main control rhythm, to suppress the spring before the pric-e increase. Because of the high price, for the steel futures, it means more risk of holding. The lower co-ntract price, especially the main contract price, always maintains the hundreds of yuan discount on the spot price of the spot, which provides the starting space for the future market. Under its influence, befo-re the spring steel prices tend to be weak to run.

Two, spring after the market direction depends on the weather conditions

After the spring Chinese steel market into consumption season, demand must be increased, so wheth-er it will or building timber timber production. But the price of steel is expected to rise, in addition to the observation of recent steel "winter storage" progress, but also to see the old man "face".

If the wind after the spring north wind, frequent haze diffusion conditions is good, environmental protec-tion efforts limiting the production of little steel production growth is more, the relationship between sup-ply and demand is easing, unfavorable price upward. If the weather is on the contrary, if serious haze -and alarm continue, then the environmental protection and limited production will be significantly enha-nced. If China's steel producing areas are strictly limited, the output of steel will decrease, and the sup-ply and demand will be tight. In addition, speculation and speculation will surely drive the price of steel to rise. Thus, this year, the spring market for steel, in fact, is the "weather market". In other words, afterthe spring steel prices? The most important factor, or the most important factor, is the weather factor. B-ut this factor is very uncertain.

In addition, after the spring steel prices are also subject to the presence of winter storage scale? If the stock ofsteel is not large at that time, it will continue to be on the low level, which will help the price of s-teel to rise. Otherwise, the price of steel will be restrained. Now, it seems that the price of steel in the e-arlier period is not much, and the psychological price of "winter storage" has not been reached. There-fore, the accumulative level of the social stock is not high. If this situation continues, should be conduc-ive to the spring market.

It is also worth noting that this spring festival time is later than that of last year. After the end of the fift-een month of the first month, it has arrived in Yangchun, March. The weather is getting warmer and thedemand for the site is increasing rapidly. Some have not yet completed, especially the "heating season" construction by the strict control of the construction site, will rush period in the spring after "". The re-sult of the superposition of several factors, after the spring national steel demand is likely to peak. If th-e price of steel rises, some construction sites that are not stocked or are not stocked enough for years will panic to rush to buy steel, which will cause the steel market to rise, warm up and pour oil.

In the spring, unfavorable factors market at the beginning of this year, steel prices up again after a bri-ef pullback. If in the future or the situation, finally break the weak running pattern, there was a substan-tial rise, will stimulate the market participants in advance stocking, inventory increases, thus forming a -heavy pressure spring market. It is worth noting that at present, the "winter storage" has an eager attit-ude, and does not exclude the emergence of a hidden "winter storage". According to China Steel Asso-ciation statistics, by the end of the late January, the key enterprises steel inventory is 11 million 485 th-ousand and 100 tons, 442 thousand and 100 tons less than the last ten days, the decrease of 3.71%. Considering the increase in the social inventory of steel, it is estimated that the small size of the "winter storage" has been carried out. If the "winter" no abortion, but large-scale really, and drive the current steel prices up sharply, it will certainly to suppress the formation of t-he spring Market